Tesla Releases Q2 2026 Analyst Delivery Consensus

Tesla published its Q2 2026 delivery consensus. The Investor Relations team compiled 21 analysts delivery estimates to provide a consensus for investors ahead of the official results expected next week.

The consensus is not the official delivery count; it is an analyst-derived estimate. For the quarter, Wall Street projects 406,024 vehicle deliveries, including 392,6625 Model 3/Y and 12,978 from other vehicles (Cybertruck, remaining Model S/X, and the Tesla Semi).

The consensus also covers energy storage, where input from 17 analysts totals 13.8 GWh.

The Numbers

At 406,024, expected deliveries would represent a 12% quarter-over-quarter increase since Q1 2026. In the same quarter last year, Tesla delivered 410,831 vehicles; if the company matches the consensus, it would be just below last year 27s level.

Q2 2025 benefited from the pending end of the US Federal EV Rebate and incentives in several other countries. Holding deliveries roughly flat year over year would be a positive outcome given the reduction of global rebates in 2026.

Historically, Q1 and Q2 are the slower periods for the automotive business, preceding stronger pushes in Q3 and Q4.

Energy Storage

Analysts anticipate a significant quarter-over-quarter increase in energy storage deployments, supported by Megafactory Shanghai operating near full capacity. As new production comes online in the United States this year, energy storage remains one of the company's fastest-growing businesses.

The consensus calls for 13.8 GWh deployed, a 36% increase over Q1 27s 8.8 GWh. The first quarter is often more challenging for energy storage deployments due to fiscal-year budget rollovers.

Official Numbers Soon

These consensus figures are typically within a few percentage points of the final results, but the official update will confirm whether expectations are met. The company plans to release its 2026 Q2 Earnings after market close on July 22nd, with delivery numbers expected on or around July 2nd.