Tesla Releases Q1 2026 Delivery Estimates From Analysts

Tesla has released a company-compiled consensus of analyst estimates for the first quarter of 2026, outlining what Wall Street expects ahead of next week’s reported results. The dataset aggregates input from 23 firms, including Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, covering anticipated vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments.

Consensus calls for 365,645 vehicle deliveries in Q1 2026 and 14.4 GWh of energy storage deployments this quarter. In its investor relations note, Tesla added that it "does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts."

Breaking Down the Numbers

Reaching 365,645 deliveries would mark a year-over-year increase versus the 336,681 vehicles delivered in Q1 2025, but would be below the 418,227 units reported in Q4 2025, a period boosted by holiday demand. Such a first-quarter dip is typical for the auto industry.

Analysts expect the Model 3 and Model Y to account for 351,179 units. The "Other Models" category—which includes the Cybertruck, Semi, and the outgoing Model S and X—is projected at 13,946 units.

Energy Storage: The Rising Star

The energy business is expected to set a new company record, with consensus at 14.4 GWh of deployments, narrowly topping the 14.2 GWh reported last quarter.

Tesla Energy is preparing to begin shipments of its next-gen Megapack 3 and Megablock products. To support this expansion, Tesla recently signed a $4.3 billion deal with LG for a new LFP battery factory in the U.S.

Tesla is expected to report final delivery and deployment figures on Thursday, April 2.